California Horse 'n Home

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Sales and Listing Statistics

    The following information was compiled from MRMLS statistics and is deemed reasonably accurate. The geographic area covered is Lake Mathews, Gavilan Hills, and Gavilan Springs, and includes Thomas Bros. Map Guide pages, 775 (south of Cajalco Rd.), 805 (all) and 806 (west of Juniper Rd.). This information does not include 'for sale' by owner or listings from out-of-area Agents that did not post to the local MLS.

    Current Active Listings               66   (as of 10/05/07)
    The average number of days these listings have been on the market is 85.
    Thirty-two have had price reductions.

    New Listings By Quarter
            1st Quarter - 01/01/07 - 03/31/07           6
            2nd Quarter - 04/01/07 - 06/30/07         27
            3rd Quarter - 07/01/07 - 09/30/07          34
                                                           TOTAL            67

    Closed Sales By Quarter
            1st Quarter - 01/01/07 - 03/31/07            6
            2nd Quarter - 04/01/07 - 06/30/07          10
            3rd Quarter - 07/01/07 - 09/30/07            5 
                                                           TOTAL             21

    Closed Sales By Month For 3rd Quarter
            July                                                      4
            August                                                  1
            September                                            0 
                                                            TOTAL              5

    So, what does this information tell us? One thing for sure, the days of quick home sales at top dollar are gone. And, as many agents are discovering, merely getting the listing is not enough. Not in this market. 
    The challenge we're facing as agents is the client's idea of what their home is worth versus the reality of the current market. Now, more than ever, the major factor is correctly pricing homes so they will sell quickly.
    I believe it is our duty as a Realtor^® to help our clients understand where the pricing was, where it is now, and a 'good' estimate on where it will be in three or four months.

Sales and Listing Statistics

I suggest you read the previous Blog (if you haven't done so), Realty Reality, before continuing. It has information directly relating to this Blog - Realty Reality II

    In this issue of the California Horse 'n Home Blog I'll be making comparisons regarding "Closed Sales" for 2007 and 2006. I'll also discuss the Five Factors that must be considered when pricing your home for sale.

Closed Sales By Quarter          2007        2006
            First Quarter                       6            11
            Second Quarter                 10            15
            Third Quarter                      5              9    
                            TOTAL             21            35

Closed Sales By Month (3rd qtr)
            July                                    4             4
            August                                1             3
            September                          0             2

    Obviously this is not a pretty statistic. If my math is correct it equates to a 40% reduction in Closed Sales for the first three quarters of 2007 versus the same period for 2006. Closed sales for the third quarter were down 44%.
    In my previous Blog I pointed out five factors that must be considered when pricing new listings. I'll go through those factors briefly.

Increased Inventory: A lot of sellers waited to list their property to catch the top of the market. They missed it. The top is gone for now. It has resulted in "Increased" inventory. Sellers are waiting and waiting for offers. Some estimates put the increase in inventory at thirty-nine percent. That helps create a "buyers" market.
Increased Mortgage Rates: Money is getting tighter. When the rate goes up even a quarter of a percent, it removes many potential buyers from the market. Less buying power equals fewer home sales.
Increased Mortgage Restrictions: With foreclosures increasing, nearly all mortgage companies are enacting tighter lending restrictions which can disqualify many potential buyers.
Increased Vacancy Rates: Flippers, especially the ones that were late getting into the market, have found their vacancy rates increase by nearly fifty percent. The majority of these investors weren't looking to be landlords and are selling their properties at rock bottom prices. 
Increased Foreclosures: Bank owned properties drive home prices DOWN. Foreclosures are on the rise. Some estimates say a foreclosure in your neighborhood can mean a reduction of value in your home as much as five percent. Some experts predict there will be a "crash" of foreclosures over the next year and a half. You can go to www.brokeragentforeclosures.com to see the foreclosures in your area.

New Era of Real Estate Sales
If you are considering putting your home on the market, all indications point to doing it NOW - not next month or three months from now and certainly not some time later next year. Why? No one is predicting the market will be back before the end of 2009. 

Sellers should make a choice when choosing an agent :
Do They Want Fantasy or Do They Want Reality?

My clients know me as a trustworthy and dependable Realtor who delivers results, even in a difficult market. For reliable, realistic and up-to-date information on the current market in our area call me.

Thank you,
Mary Jo Placka - Tarbell, Realtors
951-707-7832